5 Betting Mistakes You Should Avoid This Upcoming 2024 Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby Horse Racing

The Kentucky Derby, also known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” is a horse racing event that can attract millions of viewers annually. It’s not really that surprising since the event itself is a cultural phenomenon now, and millions of horse racing enthusiasts dream of participating or at least attending the event.

However, one group of people waits for it every year to bet on it, and that would be bettors. 

Every year, the event can rack up millions of bets, making it also a huge betting opportunity for horse racing bettors in the world. But as we all know, you can’t win every time, so in this article, we’ll talk about some of the most effective horse racing strategies you can use at the Kentucky Derby to increase your chances of winning. Let’s start.

Understand the Terrain

Horse Racing Terrain
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The terrain is one of the most important things you must consider when strategizing. As we all know, horses have preferences on tracks. Some horses prefer running on dirt, while some prefer running on synthetic surfaces.

Churchill Downs is known to have a dirt surface, and it can present a unique challenge for both horses and bettors. This is why, as a bettor, you need to know the nuances of the track itself. It can guide you on which horse to bet on.

Churchill Downs’ track condition fluctuates almost every day because of certain factors like weather, maintenance, and race schedule. Dry tracks usually favor horses with speed and agility because the dry track allows them to exert and maintain momentum with less resistance. 

Conversely, wet and muddy tracks introduce an element of surprise, which can be disadvantageous for some monsters, which is why heavy-footed horses excel on this track because they have ample strength of their hooves, which means they can run easily on a track with excessive resistance.

Analyze the Horse Form and Track Record

Analyze the Horse Form and Track Record

If you are in it to win it, you should always analyze each horse’s form and performance in their recent races. Past performances present a window of opportunity for the bettor to look closely at their past performance and infer how the horse will perform next time.

When evaluating the horse’s capabilities, you should consider factors such as margin of victory, finishing positions, and responses to different scenarios. 

In addition to its past performances, you could also look at the horse’s training regimen, current physical condition, owner comments, attitude towards the race, etc. All of these factors significantly affect the horse’s upcoming performance in the race.

Furthermore, you should also look at the jockey-horse relationship; how the two fit is a significant factor because a horse alone can only do so much without the guidance of its jockey.

Jockey Insight

Regarding jockeys, casual bettors usually ignore them because they believe that believing in the horses alone could yield them wins. However, if you’re a pro bettor, you know that isn’t true in Derby betting with FanDuel.com.

If you look into the jockeys, there’s generally more info about them. How? You see, the colts you see competing in big races usually don’t have that much info since, most likely, they’ve only raced once, twice, or thrice in their early lives. However, the same jockeys, trainers, and owners participate in these events. 

And, of course, since there is more information about them it’s usually easier for the bettors to have a closer look at their chemistry with the horses and their upcoming performance. Of course, this information would also be available in their track records.

When you’re looking into these jockeys, it’s always important to know who among them has competed with successful horses in the past. The more experience winning the jockey is, the more worthwhile he will be for your bets.

This understanding is particularly valuable when considering the strategies employed by some of the wealthiest horse racing trainers in the world, whose methods often involve pairing top jockeys with promising contenders.

Consider the Pace of the Race

The Pace of the Horse Race
This Image Is Generated by Midjourney

Knowing the pace of the race is important if you want to have an insight into how the race will end. If you think the early leader is a horse that can go slowly and exert minimal effort while ahead, it might be the type that can conserve energy and burst it all out at the final stretch. 

On the other hand, if you think the race will have horses going all out in the first stages, you should look into horses that can go full impact at the final stretches. In short, knowing the pace of the race matters because it can give you a closer look at how each horse will perform and which one of them has a chance of getting the win at the end.

Do Some Value Betting

Horse Racing Betting

If you want some advice on the more technical side of horse racing betting, then this is for you. Value betting presents a lucrative opportunity for the more savvy bettors out there because it allows you to capitalize on the discrepancies between each horse’s perceived and actual probabilities.

Of course, the only way to do this is to do your research. With this closer look, you can look at the horses you think have untapped potential and are currently being overlooked.

Of course, since they are overlooked, they are usually on the long-shot side of betting. It would seem silly to bet on a horse with a long shot of winning, so we say that value betting is not for everyone. It requires patience, discipline, and an iron will.

Sure, you’re at a disadvantage betting on these horses, but if you do win, you’ll win big. It’s more like picking off the horse you think has the most value and betting on it, regardless of whether it’s on the long shot.

Final Words

As the excitement builds for the upcoming 2024 Kentucky Derby, the betting sites nowadays are getting crazier and crazier by the amount of bettors and bets they are getting. Of course, you’ll be among them sooner or later if you’re not already there.

However, with the strategies we discussed today, you’re better equipped than more than half of them, giving you a chance to win big in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

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